Is your hit rate real?
Consistent with chance: a record like this happens often even when the market price is right. Games needed to tell this rate apart from the market price: about 31.
What the checker calculates
The market probability comes from the odds (at -110 it is 52.4%). The checker computes how often a record at least as good happens by pure chance if the market is right (binomial test), and the plausible range of the true rate (95% Wilson interval).
With 7/10 against a 52.4% price the chance of luck is about 21%: it happens all the time.
What the data says
In a test on 238,000 NBA lines, hit rates (last 5, last 10, season, vs opponent) added no predictive power beyond the price. Hit rate is a description of the past, not a signal. Use this tool to see how much a sample really tells you.
Frequently asked questions
How many games do I need for a hit rate to mean something?
Far more than most people think: to tell a true 60% from a 52.4% price with confidence you need around 170 games.
Why not just use the last 10 games?
Ten games swing a lot: a coin-flip outcome lands 7 or more out of 10 about 17% of the time.
The Clutch terminal does these calculations for every NBA player prop, using Pinnacle's no-vig price as the reference. Free with an account.
Analyze in the terminal