Lines and odds: Pinnacle, the market's reference sportsbook, collected via The Odds API. We use Pinnacle as the reference price and you enter the odds from your own sportsbook.
Stats and box scores: stats.nba.com and ESPN. Injuries: ESPN report, updated every hour. Spread, total and win probability: Pinnacle game lines.
Lines, odds, results, minutes and injuries are data. Pace, level, balance, garbage time and absences are estimates we build from team results and market lines: we always label them as such.
Fair probability: the Pinnacle price with the sportsbook margin removed. Across 7,800+ NBA games since 2020 it has been well calibrated. Model: our estimate of the probability of the Over on every prop, built on player history. On its own it does not beat the market. Blend: a mix of the model and the Pinnacle probability, where the market weighs much more. When model and market are more than 10 points apart we show a ⚠: usually some information is missing (minutes, role, injuries) and it should be checked. Elo: team rating calibrated on results, shown for information.
EV: expected value = probability × decimal odds − 1. It is a calculation: it depends on the probability we use and the odds you enter, and it guarantees nothing.
Under every percentage we show the number of games it is based on. Early in the season samples are small and percentages swing a lot: read them with care.
Clutch provides no picks or betting advice, does not link to sportsbooks and does not promote gambling. It publishes statistics and calculations for informational purposes: no model removes uncertainty, and gambling can be addictive. Data may contain errors or delays. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Hit rate: share of games in which the player beat today's line. L5, L10, L20: last 5, 10, 20 games. H2H: against the same opponent. Line hit rate: every past game compared with that day's line. DVP: rank 1 to 30 of the opposing defense against the player's position, 1 = allows the most. Streak: consecutive games over (O) or under (U) today's line.
Pace: expected speed of the game, percentile of the expected total. Level: average strength of the two teams. Balance: 100 is a coin-flip game. Garbage time: probability of a final margin of 15 points or more.