Understanding NBA numbers
What are NBA player props and how to read them
Player props are lines on a single player's stats: points, rebounds, assists, threes. How they work, how to read a line and what Over and Under mean.
American odds and implied probability: how to calculate them
How to turn American or decimal odds into a probability, what the sportsbook margin (vig) is and how to remove it to get the no-vig probability. Examples with NBA numbers.
Hit rate in NBA props: what it measures and why it isn't enough
Hit rate is the share of games in which a player went over a line. How it is calculated, when it misleads and what a test on 238,000 NBA lines says.
Opening line vs closing line: why odds move
What the opening line and the closing line are, why the market moves before the game and what the movement tells you. With numbers from 6 NBA seasons.
NBA back-to-backs: what 15,000 games say
Do teams on the second night of a back-to-back win less? Yes, but the market already knows. The numbers from 15,400 NBA games from 2020 to 2026 against closing odds.