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CLE @ NYKWed, Nov 11, 7:10 PMBOS @ TORWed, Nov 11, 7:10 PMWAS @ INDWed, Nov 11, 7:10 PMDEN @ MEMWed, Nov 11, 8:10 PMLAL @ MILWed, Nov 11, 8:10 PMSAS @ CHIWed, Nov 11, 8:10 PMBKN @ NOPWed, Nov 11, 8:10 PMORL @ UTAWed, Nov 11, 9:10 PMGSW @ HOUWed, Nov 11, 9:40 PM
Tools / Expected value (EV) calculator
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Expected value (EV) calculator

Enter the odds and the probability you assign to the bet: you get the expected value per bet, the EV percentage and the break-even probability. Free, no account.
Expected value
+$5.00
per bet
EV per unit staked
+5.00%
Break-even probability
47.6%
Fair odds at your probability
+100 · 2.00 · 1/1

The EV formula

EV = probability × decimal odds − 1. At +110 (2.10) with a 50% probability: 0.50 × 2.10 − 1 = +5%, so +$5 per $100 on average.

The break-even probability is 1 / decimal odds: at +110 you need to win more than 47.6% of the time.

Where the probability comes from

EV is only as good as the probability you enter. The most reliable public reference is the no-vig price of a sharp market: a bet that is +EV against Pinnacle's fair odds is the closest thing to an objective measure.

Frequently asked questions

What is a positive EV bet?

A bet whose expected value is above zero given your probability: on average, over many bets, it returns more than it costs. Any single bet can still lose.

Does +EV guarantee profit?

No. EV is an average over many bets and depends entirely on the probability being right. Variance can be large over small samples.

The Clutch terminal does these calculations for every NBA player prop, using Pinnacle's no-vig price as the reference. Free with an account.

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